The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted a global sea level rise of about one metre by A.D. 2100. What would be its impact on India and the other countries in the Indian Ocean region?
A one-metre sea-level rise by 2100, as predicted by the IPCC, is not a distant threat but an impending crisis for the densely populated coastlines of India and the Indian Ocean region. The consequences would be catastrophic and multi-dimensional, reshaping geography, economies, and societies.
For India, with its long 7,500 km coastline, the impact would be severe.
- Submergence and Flooding: Major coastal cities like Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, and Kochi would face extreme risks of submergence and chronic flooding, threatening critical infrastructure, homes, and businesses. Low-lying fertile deltas, such as the Sundarbans and the Krishna-Godavari delta, would be particularly vulnerable.
- Economic Disruption: Ports and harbours, the lifelines of our trade, would be severely affected. The fishing industry, which supports millions, would be devastated as coastal ecosystems and fish breeding grounds are destroyed.
- Ecological and Social Crises: Saltwater intrusion would contaminate coastal aquifers, rendering freshwater sources undrinkable and agricultural land barren. This would trigger mass displacement of coastal communities, leading to an unprecedented "climate refugee" crisis and immense social stress. The iconic Sundarbans mangrove forest, a natural barrier against storm surges, would be irreversibly damaged.
The situation is equally, if not more, dire for other countries in the Indian Ocean region.
- Existential Threat to Island Nations: Low-lying island nations like the Maldives and Seychelles face an existential threat of being completely wiped off the map.
- Vulnerability in Bangladesh: Bangladesh, with its vast, low-lying delta, is exceptionally vulnerable. A one-metre rise could inundate a significant portion of the country, displacing tens of millions of people.
- Impact on Sri Lanka and Indonesia: Coastal communities and vital economic zones in Sri Lanka and the archipelagic nation of Indonesia would face similar threats of erosion, flooding, and economic loss.
This looming crisis demands urgent and radical adaptation strategies, including building coastal defences, ecosystem restoration, and planned relocation, alongside aggressive global efforts to cut emissions and halt the rise of our oceans.
Answered By:
Sakshi Negi
Sakshi Negi is a Delhi-based journalist and content specialist with expertise in educational content and digital media, focusing particularly on government exam preparation and career guidance. With a degree in Journalism and Mass Communication from NRAI School of Mass Communication and her background as a Kendriya Vidyalaya alumna, she brings unique insights into the Indian education system and government sector opportunities.
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